So what happens when a book is hyped as the next big thing and seems all set to get its own movie/TV series, but then doesn’t and instead looks like it might get cancelled? We have an example of this very scenario with the recent cancellation rumors about the ‘Y: the Last Man’ TV series.
This property, originally considered for a major film project, was subsequently taken up as a potential TV series by the FX network. Well now, due to creative differences among the show runners, it is apparently on the verge of being cancelled (see here).
In this post, I want to look at the downside of speculation, when the hype never reaches fruition, and the comic you bet on fails to break out to a larger audience.
Brian K. Vaughan’s and Pia Guerra’s celebrated 2002 Vertigo comic Y: the Last man has long been heralded as an artistic success. The recipient of three Eisner awards and winner of the Hugo award for best graphic story in 2008, for the original readers, there was no interest in owning copies for any other reason than to read a terrific story. However, when rumors started circulating that it was in consideration for development into a full length feature film in 2007; all of a sudden a lot of people eagerly wanted to own a copy of the first issue thinking it would balloon in value. In 2011, moreover, a loosely adapted version of the story as a short film was released in Portugal by Luís Lobo and Bruno Telésforo. All things looked good for the future of Y.
In fact, the hype was enough to see interest and prices also frequently rise. before January of 2007 there were a mere 119 copies on the CGC census, with an average grade of 9.4. By January of 2018 that number had jumped to 777. as of April 29, 2019 there are no less than 1,129 CGC graded copies out there. Ebay sellers have frequently promoted copies with the label line: ‘TV show COMING SOON’. If the TV show gets cancelled, what will this imply for the value of Y: the Last Man?
Y: The Last man #1 (August 2002) – first appearance of Yorick brown & Ampersand
A afflict and the fast extinction of male mammals of all species are the setting for this dystopian comic written by Brian K. Vaughan. The sole male survivors of the plague, Yorick brown and his Capuchin monkey Ampersand, become the focus of the 60 issue series as the only males left on earth. There were no recorded sales of this comic on GoCollect before 2012. At that time, a 9.8 sale is recorded as selling for $288.83 on eBay (06/18/2012). By February of 2018, the same 9.8 grade was selling for $620.00 (eBay sale 02/17/2018) a return on investment of 114.6%. By may of 2019 a 9.8 copy sold for $1, 300.00 (eBay 03/16/2019). Again, a jump of 109% in value. but the news of the potential cancellation of the TV show saw the last 9.8 copy sell for $999.99. has a sell off begun?
For now, if we look only at the three-month average for returns, the situation looks as follows:
9.8 = positive at +9.3% after 7 sales over the last three months.
9.6 = positive at +45.6% after 11 sales
9.4 = positive at +52.2% after 4 sales
9.2 = negative at -3% after 3 sales
9.0 = positive at +12.5% after 2 sales.
This reveals mostly positive numbers but remember all those sales were made before the problems in development of the show were floated. Now, let’s look much more closely at the data, because every case is different. In terms of print run, Y: The Last man #1, is not exactly a scarce book. According to Comichron.com it had a total of about 15, 287 units purchased by bookstores in 2002 from diamond distributors upon release (see here).
This implies there are literally thousands of copies that have not been graded. This is bad news for a modern book like ‘Y’, because without a spin off (even if Vaughan’s later projects, like Saga, are critically acclaimed), it will be difficult to keep non-fans interested in this book to seek it out without a film or television series promoting it. I predict (barring new show runners being found for the FX live action series) prices will drop.
What’s the take away here: there are no certainties in the comic book world. The short-term indicators, if cancellation happens, would seem to point to a drop in prices that may affect all grades in the coming months. This is an apparent case of speculation failure. If you purchased a copy within the last two years in the hopes of selling upon release of the show, your book may lose a considerable amount of value.
Might the TV show still go through? This is still a possibility, but with so numerous titles and comic based shows out there, and no shortage of other, better known, comics waiting to be adapted by Hollywood, the chances of Y being taken up by another network if it doesn’t get made by FX do not look good.
There is, however, a lesson here. If you purchased a copy of Y because you wanted to own it and love the book, then you shouldn’t really get too worked up about potentiallynull